70,000 Returning Israelis Target Tight Knesset Margins

An estimated 70,000 Israelis residing abroad have returned to the country or are expected to arrive before Tuesday's Knesset elections. While no precise count exists, political analysts note that this volume of returning voters could alter the balance of power if the final margin between competing blocs remains narrow.

The potential impact of these votes is measured against the number of ballots required to secure a single seat in the 120-member legislature. In the 2022 election, approximately 36,000 votes were necessary to win a seat. Due to population growth and higher projected turnout, the threshold for this cycle is expected to rise to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes.

Polling on the specific preferences of these returnees is limited, though some estimates indicate a leaning toward the change bloc. Even if 60% of the arriving voters supported that alliance, the additional support would translate to a gain of at most one to one-and-a-half seats. The final tally will determine whether this influx shifted the outcome.

The surge in arrivals is visible in the hospitality sector. Alex Eliyahu, marketing director at Africa Israel Hotels, reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. He noted that many travelers are combining their civic duty with short vacations.

Fattal Hotels also recorded higher occupancy, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, the chain's vice president of marketing and sales, attributed the rise to election-related bookings. To accommodate the influx, the hotel group is offering discounts of up to 30% for stays between October 25 and 29, with an additional 10% discount for loyalty members.

Many of those who traveled joined tens of thousands at the October Council rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, a resident of Miami for over 50 years, stated that she and others from the city and Los Angeles often vote for the right-wing bloc, though she described herself as an exception. Ofer, who traveled from New York, said his family arrived specifically to vote and will depart the day after the election.

Not all planned trips were successful. Some Israelis were stranded abroad when flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, which also drove up airfare prices for routes to the Far East. Meanwhile, Racheli from Ramat Gan, who booked a trip to Vietnam a year ago, expressed regret at missing the vote, citing a lack of provision for Israelis traveling abroad on Election Day.