Christian nationalism holds firm in Republican base despite national decline

Religious identity remains a decisive factor in the 2026 midterm election cycle, even as the percentage of Americans who strongly identify with Christian nationalism has dipped slightly. New data from the Charles F. Kettering Foundation and Gallup indicates that while overall support is softening, the ideology continues to shape how voters assess the health of American democracy.

Andrew Whitehead, a sociology professor at Indiana University Indianapolis and a research fellow for the Kettering Foundation, presented findings from an annual national survey of more than 23,000 adults. The results show that 14% of the U.S. population strongly embraces Christian nationalism, defined as the belief that Christianity defines the nation and the government should actively maintain that status. An additional slice of the population is at least sympathetic to the view, bringing the total to just over 16%.

Support for the ideology skews heavily by race, gender, and party affiliation. Among white Americans, 31% are at least sympathetic to Christian nationalism. Men show higher support than women, with a third of men holding a sympathetic view compared to 28% of women. The strongest correlation exists with the Republican Party, where 55% of members strongly embrace or sympathize with the concept. Whitehead noted that while fewer Americans hold these views strongly, the rhetoric has become more embedded in national political discourse due to its presence in federal government and media.

The survey reveals a sharp divide in how different groups perceive the functioning of democracy. Whitehead explained that Americans who reject Christian nationalism are far less likely to view the system positively. Those who strongly embrace the ideology currently say democracy is doing great, while very few who reject it think it is doing well or even okay. This disparity in perception drives political behavior, as the nearly 70% of respondents who resist or reject Christian nationalism are highly motivated to vote in this cycle.

These motivated voters are pushing for Congress to check the power of the executive branch, a check that Whitehead said has not occurred in the first two years of the current administration. The election cycle also features a notable demographic shift on the ballot. While combining religion and politics is far more common among Republicans, five Democrats running in Congressional races are currently clergy or in training to become clergy.

The data suggests that the decline in strong Christian nationalist identification is not reversing the ideological split in the electorate. Instead, it is sharpening the contrast between those who view the system as functioning effectively and those who see it under threat. As the midterms approach, these opposing views of democracy are likely to define the campaign narratives for both parties.