Hochul Extends Lead to 14 Points as Election Nears

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has expanded her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to 14 percentage points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday. The survey indicates the Democratic incumbent is gaining momentum in the final days before the November 3 election.

Among likely voters, Hochul holds a 54% to 40% advantage. This gap is five points wider than the margin recorded in September, when she led 50% to 41%. Steven Greenberg, the Siena pollster, stated that Blakeman is running out of time to close a gap that continues to grow.

The data reveals challenges for Blakeman in regions where Republicans typically need strong performance to compete statewide. The two candidates are virtually tied in upstate New York and the downstate suburbs. However, Hochul leads among independent voters by 11 points. Greenberg noted that Republicans usually require strong showings in these areas and with independents to offset the Democrats' two-to-one voter registration advantage and their dominance in New York City.

Voters expressed uncertainty regarding the economy. A plurality of 35% said neither candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers. Thirty percent selected Hochul, while 27% picked Blakeman. Hochul's personal standing also improved, with 51% of likely voters viewing her favorably. This is the first time a majority has rated her favorably in Siena polling during her five years as governor. Her job approval rose to 51% from 48% in September, while Blakeman's ratings stood at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

Demographic breakdowns show a distinct gender gap, with Hochul leading Blakeman by 23 points among women and six points among men. She holds an 81% to 16% advantage among Black voters, while White voters remain closely divided. Most voters expect her to prevail, as 68% of likely voters believe Hochul will win, compared with 23% who predict a Blakeman victory. Even among Republicans surveyed, 40% said they expect Hochul to win.

In other statewide contests, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%. Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%. Siena conducted the poll from October 19 to 22 among 807 likely New York voters using telephone and text-to-web surveys. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.