Israeli Election: Palestinian Parties Hold Balance of Power as Jewish Blocs Reject Coalition

Palestinian citizens of Israel cast their ballots at a rate of 80 percent in the parliamentary election held on Tuesday, a sharp increase in participation from a community that comprises 21 percent of the national population. This surge in voter turnout has positioned two Palestinian-led lists as the decisive factor in determining which political camp will form the next government.

The United Arab List, known as Ra'am, and the Joint List collectively secured 19 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. With all ballots counted, the coalition supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds 53 seats, while the Jewish opposition bloc holds 48. When the 19 seats held by Palestinian parties are added to the opposition count, a majority of parliament stands in opposition to Netanyahu.

Analysts attribute the high participation rate to anger over the ongoing war in Gaza and the perceived racism of the current governing coalition. Orly Noy, who ran for the Balad party, a Palestinian-dominated faction, described the turnout as predictable. She stated that the governing coalition had demonstrated a lack of red lines in Gaza, leading Palestinians in Israel to fear they would be next. Noy argued that residents could not endure another term of high crime rates and a police force led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. She noted, 'The last tool they had in their toolbox was their vote, but even that now seems to be being undermined and delegated.'

Despite the arithmetic showing a majority against the prime minister, leading figures in the pro-Netanyahu camp have moved to challenge the legitimacy of the results. Likud characterized the outcome as an attempt at the 'Islamisation of Israel' and requested that the Shin Bet, the internal security service, investigate potential foreign interference behind the high Palestinian turnout. Other supporters of the prime minister labeled the election an 'attempt to steal the vote,' moves that appear to question the validity of the Arab vote and could complicate future coalition negotiations.

The Jewish-led opposition has also expressed reluctance to partner with Palestinian parties, despite criticizing Netanyahu's government as corrupt and damaging to Israel's international standing. Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid ruled out serving in a government with Palestinian parties on election night, despite relying on their support during their brief administration in 2021 and 2022. On Thursday, Avigdor Lieberman of the Yisrael Beytenu party also excluded such a coalition. Lieberman stated he would sit with 'neither Bibi nor Tibi,' using Netanyahu's nickname and naming Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta'al party within the Joint List, as a representative of the broader Palestinian bloc.

Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg explained that the resistance stems from deep-seated assumptions in mainstream Israeli politics regarding Jewish supremacy. He noted that the Arab vote is often viewed as a challenge to the state's character, a perspective he linked to the 2018 Nation State Law. That legislation granted the right to national self-determination exclusively to Jewish people. Flaschenberg described the differing concepts of citizenship and governance, stating that these differences often mask the underlying racism.

Mauricio Lapchik, the Hebrew campaign director for the Joint List, argued that opponents seek a government composed solely of Jewish voices. He contended that in other democratic nations, such a majority would be recognized as a victory. In Israel, however, the voice of Arab citizens is not treated as equal to that of Jewish citizens, leading Lapchik to argue that the current outcome cannot be called a simple win by any single side.

The left-wing Democrats are currently viewed as the most likely Jewish faction to cooperate with the Arab parties. No formal coalition talks have been announced as of this week, and the political landscape remains fragmented as leaders continue to debate the role of the 19 Palestinian-held seats.