70 House Districts Face Heavy Ad Spending in Final Midterm Week

Seventy House districts are seeing both parties spend at least six figures in the final week of the 2026 midterm campaign. An NPR analysis indicates these competitive areas represent the core of the battle, shifting focus from whether Democrats gain control to how much they gain.

The spending surge is concentrated in specific high-value targets. Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida each have toss-up districts receiving more than $10 million in ad buys. Deep-red communities in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are also seeing seven-figure investments. Additionally, resources are being directed at districts where Republican gerrymandering may face backlash.

Current polling and ratings suggest a shift in power. The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning toward the GOP. Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 seat advantage in the House, but that edge is expected to erode. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.

Several key seats are changing hands on paper. Four districts that voted for opposite-party presidential and House candidates in 2024 have seen Republicans cut ad reservations. These include races for Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09), and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03), plus retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02). Only Shomari Figures (AL-02) and Darren Soto (FL-09) remain in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans after mid-decade redistricting.

The most expensive races are Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each with over $12 million in planned spending. Other high-cost targets include Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd. The 70 districts with heavy spending from both sides voted for Donald Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Sixty of these districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms.

Voters are weighing cost-of-living issues, including rising gas prices, tariffs, and the Iran war. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also fueled anti-incumbency sentiment. Republicans redrawn maps this year to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats like Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) and Don Davis (NC-01). Democrats made similar changes in California for districts held by Republicans James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48), and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06).