Student List Government Prioritizes Domestic Repairs Over Foreign Policy Changes

The opposition Student List secured a historic victory in Sunday’s election, ending 14 years of continuous rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. The result marks a decisive break from the previous administration, which had maintained power through a mix of political dominance and institutional control. As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition period, international observers are assessing how this change in leadership will affect Serbia’s diplomatic standing.

Analysts caution that a rapid pivot in foreign policy is unlikely to occur immediately. Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that internal consolidation will take precedence over external diplomatic maneuvers. He noted that the new authorities must first address a system that has captured democratic institutions, including the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov described the immediate task as tidying up at home before attempting to solve problems with neighbors.

Regional relations have often been strained by the nationalistic rhetoric of the outgoing government. Popov indicated that relations with Croatia are not frozen but are marked by frequent sharp words. He explained that the previous administration clashed with Croatia’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union, creating a dynamic where both sides produced internal and external enemies. Despite this public hostility, Popov observed a quiet convergence on the issue of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Belgrade backed Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik while Zagreb favored a third entity.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least among the various sectors of Serbian public policy. He argued that many international and domestic structures shaping these policies will remain in place. While Russian influence may face a blow due to the end of uncritical glorification in state-controlled media, Vuksanovic said the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. He noted that Serbia still requires preferential gas prices and that the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved.

Regarding Ukraine, Vuksanovic stated that Serbia will likely maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, he expressed doubt about the continuity of ammunition deliveries to Kyiv. He described the previous weapons sales as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for Vucic’s domestic rule, a practice the opposition viewed with skepticism. Vuksanovic emphasized that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or taking an aggressive posture toward Moscow.

Serbia’s relationship with Israel also faces scrutiny. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will be re-examined. He specifically cited contracts concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe following Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. He added that Serbia’s future stance will depend largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Popov expressed hope that a new government led by experts and civic leaders would work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union. He stated that the previous government sabotaged EU integration and that the bloc will not accept a country without good neighborly relations. The new government’s primary task, he said, will be to repair those damaged ties. As Serbia enters this new political era, the international community expects a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.