US Midterms Put Pakistan’s New Diplomacy at Risk

The November 3 US midterm elections will determine the fate of a diplomatic strategy Pakistan has built around President Donald Trump’s personal preferences.

Islamabad’s foreign policy currently rests on a direct line to the White House rather than traditional institutional channels. This approach has yielded tangible results since March 2025, but it leaves the country exposed to shifts in the American political landscape.

The relationship transformed after the four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025. The conflict, which began after armed fighters killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, ended in a ceasefire on May 10. Trump announced the truce first, a move that cemented his status in Islamabad as a key mediator.

Since that intervention, the US has cut tariffs on Pakistani exports from 29 percent to 19 percent under a July 2025 trade deal. The two nations also signed memorandums of understanding covering minerals, cryptocurrency, and drones. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was hosted for lunch at the White House, a first for a serving military leader who is not the head of state.

Pakistan’s role expanded into the Middle East following US and Israeli attacks on Iran in February 2025. Islamabad brokered a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 8 and hosted high-level talks in June. The result was a 14-point memorandum of understanding. However, the 60-day window for further negotiations expired in mid-August without extension.

Munir returned to Tehran on October 20 for his fifth visit since the war began. Iranian officials stated they had no new proposals for Washington. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf noted that military threats would not change Iranian decisions. No breakthrough was announced during this latest round of discussions.

Trump’s approval rating stands at 30 percent, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4. This is down from 37 percent in January. Polls expect his Republican Party to lose seats in both the House and Senate. A Democratic majority would likely shift US foreign policy priorities toward traditional treaty alliances such as NATO.

Geopolitical analyst Imran Khan noted that a Democratic win would tilt Washington toward India over Pakistan. He argued that while a weaker Trump might not change immediate policy, it could signal the end of Pakistan’s current elevated status. Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute, urged Islamabad to rely on its relevance in the Middle East security framework rather than its proximity to Trump.

The US and Israel are expected to hold their respective elections before the end of the year. Israel’s vote is scheduled for October 27. Analysts warn that the outcome in Washington could determine whether the US maintains its current posture in the Gulf or returns to a more cautious diplomatic stance.